Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Adelaide United win with a probability of 44.95%. A win for Central Coast Mariners had a probability of 30.43% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.
The most likely scoreline for an Adelaide United win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.14%) and 2-0 (7.27%). The likeliest Central Coast Mariners win was 1-2 (7.33%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.57%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Adelaide United would win this match.
