Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Central Coast Mariners win with a probability of 51.1%. A win for Wellington Phoenix had a probability of 24.91% and a draw had a probability of 24%.
The most likely scoreline for a Central Coast Mariners win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.66%) and 2-0 (8.67%). The likeliest Wellington Phoenix win was 0-1 (6.67%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.35%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 0.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Central Coast Mariners would win this match.
