SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lanus win with a probability of 57.46%. A draw had a probability of 26.4% and a win for Sarmiento had a probability of 16.09%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lanus win was 1-0 with a probability of 17.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.13%) and 2-1 (8.39%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (12.08%), while for a Sarmiento win it was 0-1 (7.72%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 13.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Lanus would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Lanus | Draw | Sarmiento |
57.46% ( 1.33) | 26.45% ( -0.29) | 16.09% ( -1.03) |
| Both teams to score 36.42% ( -1) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 35.41% ( -0.31) | 64.6% ( 0.31) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 16.39% ( -0.22) | 83.61% ( 0.22) |
| Lanus Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.11% ( 0.43) | 22.89% ( -0.43) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 43.36% ( 0.63) | 56.64% ( -0.63) |
| Sarmiento Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 47.22% ( -1.57) | 52.78% ( 1.57) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 13.5% ( -1.02) | 86.51% ( 1.03) |
| Score Analysis |
| Lanus | Draw | Sarmiento |
| 1-0 @ 17.81% ( 0.43) 2-0 @ 13.13% ( 0.48)2-1 @ 8.39% ( -0.08)3-0 @ 6.46% ( 0.31)3-1 @ 4.13% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 2.38% ( 0.15)4-1 @ 1.52% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 1.32% ( -0.06)Other @ 2.33% Total : 57.46% | 0-0 @ 12.08% ( 0.14) 1-1 @ 11.38% ( -0.25)2-2 @ 2.68% ( -0.15)Other @ 0.3% Total : 26.44% | 0-1 @ 7.72% ( -0.27) 1-2 @ 3.64% ( -0.26)0-2 @ 2.47% ( -0.21)Other @ 2.27% Total : 16.09% |
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