Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sarmiento win with a probability of 41.51%. A win for Lanus had a probability of 31.29% and a draw had a probability of 27.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sarmiento win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.54%) and 2-0 (7.67%). The likeliest Lanus win was 0-1 (9.71%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.87%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sarmiento would win this match.