SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 12 | Huracan | 13 | 1 | 18 |
| 13 | Sarmiento | 12 | -7 | 18 |
| 14 | Union | 13 | -1 | 17 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 17 | San Lorenzo | 14 | -2 | 15 |
| 18 | Lanus | 13 | -1 | 14 |
| 19 | Arsenal Sarandi | 12 | 0 | 13 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sarmiento win with a probability of 41.51%. A win for Lanus had a probability of 31.29% and a draw had a probability of 27.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sarmiento win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.54%) and 2-0 (7.67%). The likeliest Lanus win was 0-1 (9.71%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.87%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sarmiento would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Sarmiento | Draw | Lanus |
41.51% ( -0.09) | 27.2% ( -0.32) | 31.29% ( 0.41) |
| Both teams to score 49.33% ( 1.1) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 44.06% ( 1.32) | 55.93% ( -1.33) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 22.96% ( 1.06) | 77.04% ( -1.07) |
| Sarmiento Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.45% ( 0.57) | 26.55% ( -0.57) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 38.24% ( 0.75) | 61.76% ( -0.75) |
| Lanus Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.16% ( 0.99) | 32.84% ( -0.99) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 30.59% ( 1.09) | 69.4% ( -1.09) |
| Score Analysis |
| Sarmiento | Draw | Lanus |
| 1-0 @ 11.56% ( -0.41) 2-1 @ 8.54% ( 0.07)2-0 @ 7.67% ( -0.14)3-1 @ 3.77% ( 0.09)3-0 @ 3.39% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 2.1% ( 0.11)4-1 @ 1.25% ( 0.05)4-0 @ 1.12% ( 0.02)Other @ 2.1% Total : 41.5% | 1-1 @ 12.87% ( -0.1) 0-0 @ 8.72% ( -0.46)2-2 @ 4.75% ( 0.16)Other @ 0.86% Total : 27.2% | 0-1 @ 9.71% ( -0.23) 1-2 @ 7.17% ( 0.14)0-2 @ 5.41% ( 0.02)1-3 @ 2.66% ( 0.12)0-3 @ 2.01% ( 0.06)2-3 @ 1.77% ( 0.11)Other @ 2.57% Total : 31.29% |
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