SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Defensa y Justicia win with a probability of 39.64%. A win for Sarmiento had a probability of 32.36% and a draw had a probability of 28%.
The most likely scoreline for a Defensa y Justicia win was 0-1 with a probability of 12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.17%) and 0-2 (7.46%). The likeliest Sarmiento win was 1-0 (10.56%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.13%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.1% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Sarmiento | Draw | Defensa y Justicia |
32.36% ( -0.04) | 28% ( 0.05) | 39.64% ( -0.02) |
| Both teams to score 47.34% ( -0.16) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 41.39% ( -0.2) | 58.6% ( 0.2) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 20.84% ( -0.16) | 79.16% ( 0.16) |
| Sarmiento Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.53% ( -0.13) | 33.47% ( 0.13) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 29.9% ( -0.15) | 70.1% ( 0.14) |
| Defensa y Justicia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.15% ( -0.11) | 28.85% ( 0.11) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 35.29% ( -0.13) | 64.71% ( 0.13) |
| Score Analysis |
| Sarmiento | Draw | Defensa y Justicia |
| 1-0 @ 10.56% ( 0.04) 2-1 @ 7.19% ( -0.02)2-0 @ 5.78% ( 0)3-1 @ 2.62% ( -0.02)3-0 @ 2.11% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 1.63% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.45% Total : 32.35% | 1-1 @ 13.13% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 9.65% ( 0.07)2-2 @ 4.47% ( -0.02)Other @ 0.74% Total : 27.99% | 0-1 @ 12% ( 0.06) 1-2 @ 8.17% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 7.46% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 3.38% ( -0.02)0-3 @ 3.09% ( -0)2-3 @ 1.85% ( -0.02)1-4 @ 1.05% ( -0.01)0-4 @ 0.96% ( -0)Other @ 1.67% Total : 39.64% |
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