Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Aldosivi win with a probability of 45.5%. A draw had a probability of 28% and a win for Patronato had a probability of 26.49%.
The most likely scoreline for an Aldosivi win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.13%) and 2-1 (8.54%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.94%), while for a Patronato win it was 0-1 (9.8%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Aldosivi would win this match.
