Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Patronato win with a probability of 39.66%. A win for Union had a probability of 30.47% and a draw had a probability of 29.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Patronato win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.96%) and 2-1 (7.61%). The likeliest Union win was 0-1 (11.8%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.4%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Patronato would win this match.
