SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a River Plate win with a probability of 62.62%. A draw had a probability of 21% and a win for Sarmiento had a probability of 16.33%.
The most likely scoreline for a River Plate win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.01%) and 1-2 (9.9%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.99%), while for a Sarmiento win it was 1-0 (5.04%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with an 11% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that River Plate would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Sarmiento | Draw | River Plate |
16.33% ( -0.68) | 21.04% ( 0.2) | 62.62% ( 0.47) |
| Both teams to score 51.12% ( -2.14) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 54.95% ( -2.11) | 45.05% ( 2.11) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 32.6% ( -2.05) | 67.4% ( 2.06) |
| Sarmiento Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 59.29% ( -2.1) | 40.71% ( 2.11) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 22.71% ( -1.95) | 77.29% ( 1.95) |
| River Plate Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 86.21% ( -0.52) | 13.79% ( 0.52) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 58.9% ( -1.05) | 41.1% ( 1.05) |
| Score Analysis |
| Sarmiento | Draw | River Plate |
| 1-0 @ 5.04% ( 0.17) 2-1 @ 4.49% ( -0.2)2-0 @ 2.27% ( -0.05)3-1 @ 1.35% ( -0.14)3-2 @ 1.33% ( -0.17)Other @ 1.85% Total : 16.33% | 1-1 @ 9.99% ( 0.15) 0-0 @ 5.61% ( 0.49)2-2 @ 4.45% ( -0.28)Other @ 0.99% Total : 21.04% | 0-1 @ 11.11% ( 0.77) 0-2 @ 11.01% ( 0.57)1-2 @ 9.9% ( -0.04)0-3 @ 7.28% ( 0.24)1-3 @ 6.54% ( -0.16)0-4 @ 3.61% ( 0.05)1-4 @ 3.24% ( -0.14)2-3 @ 2.94% ( -0.25)2-4 @ 1.46% ( -0.15)0-5 @ 1.43% ( -0.01)1-5 @ 1.28% ( -0.08)Other @ 2.82% Total : 62.61% |
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