SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bolivar win with a probability of 61.75%. A draw had a probability of 21% and a win for Athletico Paranaense had a probability of 17.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bolivar win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.48%) and 2-1 (9.94%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.96%), while for an Athletico Paranaense win it was 0-1 (4.98%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bolivar would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Bolivar | Draw | Athletico Paranaense |
61.75% ( 0.15) | 21.04% ( -0.07) | 17.2% ( -0.09) |
| Both teams to score 52.96% ( 0.03) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 56.47% ( 0.13) | 43.53% ( -0.13) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 34.08% ( 0.13) | 65.92% ( -0.13) |
| Bolivar Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 86.43% ( 0.09) | 13.56% ( -0.09) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 59.34% ( 0.17) | 40.66% ( -0.17) |
| Athletico Paranaense Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 61.28% ( -0.03) | 38.72% ( 0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 24.54% ( -0.02) | 75.46% ( 0.02) |
| Score Analysis |
| Bolivar | Draw | Athletico Paranaense |
| 1-0 @ 10.49% ( -0.02) 2-0 @ 10.48% ( 0.01)2-1 @ 9.94% 3-0 @ 6.98% ( 0.03)3-1 @ 6.62% ( 0.02)4-0 @ 3.49% ( 0.03)4-1 @ 3.31% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 3.14% ( 0.01)4-2 @ 1.57% ( 0.01)5-0 @ 1.39% ( 0.02)5-1 @ 1.32% ( 0.01)Other @ 3.01% Total : 61.75% | 1-1 @ 9.96% ( -0.03) 0-0 @ 5.25% ( -0.03)2-2 @ 4.72% ( -0)3-3 @ 0.99% ( 0)Other @ 0.13% Total : 21.05% | 0-1 @ 4.98% ( -0.03) 1-2 @ 4.72% ( -0.02)0-2 @ 2.36% ( -0.02)1-3 @ 1.49% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 1.49% ( -0)Other @ 2.15% Total : 17.2% |
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