On paper, Athletico have a side that we believe are superior to Bolivar, but something about the atmosphere in La Paz seems to bring out the best in the home team, and that, along with their splendid goalkeeping, might be enough for them to create a big surprise.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bolivar win with a probability of 61.75%. A draw had a probability of 21% and a win for Athletico Paranaense had a probability of 17.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bolivar win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.48%) and 2-1 (9.94%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.96%), while for an Athletico Paranaense win it was 0-1 (4.98%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bolivar would win this match.
0.15) 
-0.07) 
