Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Mineiro win with a probability of 63.55%. A draw had a probability of 21.8% and a win for Athletico Paranaense had a probability of 14.66%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Mineiro win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.57%) and 2-1 (9.58%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.27%), while for an Athletico Paranaense win it was 0-1 (5.51%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Atletico Mineiro would win this match.
0.77) 
-0.34) 
