Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sao Paulo win with a probability of 38.09%. A win for Flamengo had a probability of 34.67% and a draw had a probability of 27.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sao Paulo win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.17%) and 2-0 (6.84%). The likeliest Flamengo win was 0-1 (10.2%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.91%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3.1% likelihood.
1.76) 
-0.16) 
