SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Dortmund win with a probability of 58.81%. A win for Freiburg had a probability of 21.14% and a draw had a probability of 20%.
The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Dortmund win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (7.56%) and 1-3 (7.05%). The likeliest Freiburg win was 2-1 (5.48%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.65%). The actual scoreline of 2-4 was predicted with a 2.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Borussia Dortmund would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Freiburg | Draw | Borussia Dortmund |
21.14% ( 0.35) | 20.05% ( 0.4) | 58.81% ( -0.74) |
| Both teams to score 63.92% ( -0.96) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 67.47% ( -1.47) | 32.53% ( 1.48) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 45.82% ( -1.72) | 54.18% ( 1.73) |
| Freiburg Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.8% ( -0.56) | 28.2% ( 0.56) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 36.1% ( -0.72) | 63.9% ( 0.72) |
| Borussia Dortmund Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 89.03% ( -0.63) | 10.97% ( 0.64) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 64.8% ( -1.43) | 35.2% ( 1.43) |
| Score Analysis |
| Freiburg | Draw | Borussia Dortmund |
| 2-1 @ 5.48% ( 0.12) 1-0 @ 3.91% ( 0.24)3-2 @ 2.55% ( -0.05)2-0 @ 2.48% ( 0.12)3-1 @ 2.31% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 1.05% ( 0.03)Other @ 3.37% Total : 21.14% | 1-1 @ 8.65% ( 0.32) 2-2 @ 6.05% ( -0.03)0-0 @ 3.09% ( 0.24)3-3 @ 1.88% ( -0.09)Other @ 0.37% Total : 20.05% | 1-2 @ 9.56% ( 0.1) 0-2 @ 7.56% ( 0.2)1-3 @ 7.05% ( -0.11)0-1 @ 6.84% ( 0.36)0-3 @ 5.57% 2-3 @ 4.46% ( -0.14)1-4 @ 3.89% ( -0.17)0-4 @ 3.08% ( -0.08)2-4 @ 2.46% ( -0.15)1-5 @ 1.72% ( -0.12)0-5 @ 1.36% ( -0.08)2-5 @ 1.09% ( -0.1)3-4 @ 1.04% ( -0.08)Other @ 3.14% Total : 58.81% |
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