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Bundesliga | Gameweek 4
Sep 16, 2023 at 2.30pm UK
Schwarzwald-Stadion
DL

Freiburg
2 - 4
Dortmund

Holer (45+2'), Hofler (45+6')
Lienhart (87'), Eggestein (89')
Hofler (82')
FT(HT: 2-1)
Hummels (11', 88'), Malen (60'), Reus (90+2')
Bensebaini (45+4'), Wolf (68'), Can (78')

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Stuttgart 5-0 Freiburg
Saturday, September 2 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga

We said: Freiburg 2-2 Borussia Dortmund

We expect Freiburg and Borussia Dortmund to dish up a high-scoring thriller as both sides bid to return to winning ways, with a draw looking like the most probable outcome at the Europa-Park Stadion. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Dortmund win with a probability of 58.81%. A win for Freiburg had a probability of 21.14% and a draw had a probability of 20%.

The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Dortmund win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (7.56%) and 1-3 (7.05%). The likeliest Freiburg win was 2-1 (5.48%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.65%). The actual scoreline of 2-4 was predicted with a 2.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Borussia Dortmund would win this match.

Result
FreiburgDrawBorussia Dortmund
21.14% (0.35 0.35) 20.05% (0.4 0.4) 58.81% (-0.744 -0.74)
Both teams to score 63.92% (-0.959 -0.96)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
67.47% (-1.468 -1.47)32.53% (1.476 1.48)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
45.82% (-1.722 -1.72)54.18% (1.73 1.73)
Freiburg Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
71.8% (-0.55799999999999 -0.56)28.2% (0.565 0.56)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
36.1% (-0.715 -0.72)63.9% (0.72300000000001 0.72)
Borussia Dortmund Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
89.03% (-0.63200000000001 -0.63)10.97% (0.639 0.64)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
64.8% (-1.425 -1.43)35.2% (1.432 1.43)
Score Analysis
    Freiburg 21.14%
    Borussia Dortmund 58.81%
    Draw 20.05%
FreiburgDrawBorussia Dortmund
2-1 @ 5.48% (0.118 0.12)
1-0 @ 3.91% (0.244 0.24)
3-2 @ 2.55% (-0.054 -0.05)
2-0 @ 2.48% (0.117 0.12)
3-1 @ 2.31% (0.013 0.01)
3-0 @ 1.05% (0.033 0.03)
Other @ 3.37%
Total : 21.14%
1-1 @ 8.65% (0.32 0.32)
2-2 @ 6.05% (-0.031000000000001 -0.03)
0-0 @ 3.09% (0.239 0.24)
3-3 @ 1.88% (-0.092 -0.09)
Other @ 0.37%
Total : 20.05%
1-2 @ 9.56% (0.103 0.1)
0-2 @ 7.56% (0.199 0.2)
1-3 @ 7.05% (-0.113 -0.11)
0-1 @ 6.84% (0.356 0.36)
0-3 @ 5.57%
2-3 @ 4.46% (-0.144 -0.14)
1-4 @ 3.89% (-0.17 -0.17)
0-4 @ 3.08% (-0.084 -0.08)
2-4 @ 2.46% (-0.149 -0.15)
1-5 @ 1.72% (-0.124 -0.12)
0-5 @ 1.36% (-0.075 -0.08)
2-5 @ 1.09% (-0.098 -0.1)
3-4 @ 1.04% (-0.08 -0.08)
Other @ 3.14%
Total : 58.81%

Read more!
Read more!
Form Guide
Last Game: Stuttgart 5-0 Freiburg
Saturday, September 2 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga
Last Game: Freiburg 1-0 Werder Bremen
Saturday, August 26 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga
Last Game: Hoffenheim 1-2 Freiburg
Saturday, August 19 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga
Last Game: Oberachern 0-2 Freiburg
Sunday, August 13 at 2.30pm in DFB-Pokal
Last Game: Frankfurt 2-1 Freiburg
Saturday, May 27 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga
Last Game: Freiburg 2-0 Wolfsburg
Friday, May 19 at 7.30pm in Bundesliga
Last Game: Dortmund 2-2 Heidenheim
Friday, September 1 at 7.30pm in Bundesliga
Last Game: VfL Bochum 1-1 Dortmund
Saturday, August 26 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga
Last Game: Dortmund 1-0 FC Koln
Saturday, August 19 at 5.30pm in Bundesliga
Last Game: Schott Mainz 1-6 Dortmund
Saturday, August 12 at 2.30pm in DFB-Pokal
Last Game: Dortmund 3-1 Ajax
Sunday, August 6 at 4pm in Club Friendlies 1
Last Game: Chelsea 1-1 Dortmund
Thursday, August 3 at 1.30am in Club Friendlies 1


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