SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Dortmund win with a probability of 54.24%. A win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 24.08% and a draw had a probability of 21.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Dortmund win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.67%) and 0-2 (7.64%). The likeliest Mainz 05 win was 2-1 (6.14%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.71%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Borussia Dortmund in this match.
| Result | ||
| Mainz 05 | Draw | Borussia Dortmund |
24.08% ( -0.13) | 21.69% ( -0.06) | 54.24% ( 0.2) |
| Both teams to score 61.98% ( 0.05) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 63.16% ( 0.13) | 36.84% ( -0.13) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 40.99% ( 0.15) | 59.01% ( -0.14) |
| Mainz 05 Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.78% ( -0.03) | 28.22% ( 0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 36.08% ( -0.04) | 63.92% ( 0.04) |
| Borussia Dortmund Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 86.34% ( 0.11) | 13.66% ( -0.1) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 59.14% ( 0.21) | 40.86% ( -0.21) |
| Score Analysis |
| Mainz 05 | Draw | Borussia Dortmund |
| 2-1 @ 6.14% ( -0.03) 1-0 @ 4.88% ( -0.04)2-0 @ 3.09% ( -0.03)3-1 @ 2.59% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 2.58% ( -0)3-0 @ 1.3% ( -0.01)Other @ 3.5% Total : 24.08% | 1-1 @ 9.71% ( -0.03) 2-2 @ 6.11% ( -0)0-0 @ 3.86% ( -0.02)3-3 @ 1.71% ( 0)Other @ 0.3% Total : 21.69% | 1-2 @ 9.66% ( 0) 0-1 @ 7.67% ( -0.02)0-2 @ 7.64% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 6.41% ( 0.03)0-3 @ 5.07% ( 0.03)2-3 @ 4.06% ( 0.01)1-4 @ 3.19% ( 0.03)0-4 @ 2.52% ( 0.02)2-4 @ 2.02% ( 0.01)1-5 @ 1.27% ( 0.02)0-5 @ 1% ( 0.01)Other @ 3.72% Total : 54.24% |
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