SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Dortmund win with a probability of 47.68%. A win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 30.26% and a draw had a probability of 22.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Dortmund win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.25%) and 2-0 (6.02%). The likeliest Mainz 05 win was 1-2 (7.05%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.39%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Borussia Dortmund | Draw | Mainz 05 |
47.68% ( 1.49) | 22.05% ( 0.11) | 30.26% ( -1.6) |
| Both teams to score 66.4% ( -1.36) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 66.56% ( -1.4) | 33.44% ( 1.39) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 44.77% ( -1.61) | 55.22% ( 1.61) |
| Borussia Dortmund Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.42% ( -0.02) | 14.58% ( 0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 57.35% ( -0.03) | 42.65% ( 0.02) |
| Mainz 05 Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.73% ( -1.57) | 22.26% ( 1.57) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 44.29% ( -2.42) | 55.7% ( 2.42) |
| Score Analysis |
| Borussia Dortmund | Draw | Mainz 05 |
| 2-1 @ 9.04% ( 0.23) 1-0 @ 6.25% ( 0.44)2-0 @ 6.02% ( 0.43)3-1 @ 5.8% ( 0.14)3-2 @ 4.36% ( -0.1)3-0 @ 3.86% ( 0.27)4-1 @ 2.79% ( 0.07)4-2 @ 2.1% ( -0.05)4-0 @ 1.86% ( 0.13)5-1 @ 1.08% ( 0.03)4-3 @ 1.05% ( -0.08)Other @ 3.48% Total : 47.68% | 1-1 @ 9.39% ( 0.24) 2-2 @ 6.79% ( -0.15)0-0 @ 3.25% ( 0.23)3-3 @ 2.18% ( -0.16)Other @ 0.45% Total : 22.05% | 1-2 @ 7.05% ( -0.15) 0-1 @ 4.88% ( 0.13)0-2 @ 3.66% ( -0.08)1-3 @ 3.53% ( -0.25)2-3 @ 3.4% ( -0.25)0-3 @ 1.83% ( -0.13)1-4 @ 1.33% ( -0.17)2-4 @ 1.28% ( -0.16)Other @ 3.3% Total : 30.26% |
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