SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Wolfsburg win with a probability of 41.05%. A win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 33.85% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Wolfsburg win was 1-0 with a probability of 8.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.8%) and 2-0 (6.62%). The likeliest Mainz 05 win was 0-1 (7.94%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.82%). The actual scoreline of 4-3 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Wolfsburg would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Wolfsburg | Draw | Mainz 05 |
41.05% ( -0.12) | 25.1% ( -0.02) | 33.85% ( 0.15) |
| Both teams to score 56.94% ( 0.12) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 53.48% ( 0.14) | 46.52% ( -0.13) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 31.21% ( 0.13) | 68.8% ( -0.13) |
| Wolfsburg Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.43% | 22.57% ( 0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 43.84% | 56.17% ( 0) |
| Mainz 05 Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.53% ( 0.15) | 26.47% ( -0.15) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 38.35% ( 0.2) | 61.65% ( -0.2) |
| Score Analysis |
| Wolfsburg | Draw | Mainz 05 |
| 1-0 @ 8.89% ( -0.05) 2-1 @ 8.8% ( -0.01)2-0 @ 6.62% ( -0.04)3-1 @ 4.37% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 3.28% ( -0.02)3-2 @ 2.9% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 1.63% ( -0)4-0 @ 1.22% ( -0.01)4-2 @ 1.08% ( 0)Other @ 2.27% Total : 41.05% | 1-1 @ 11.82% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 5.97% ( -0.03)2-2 @ 5.85% ( 0.02)3-3 @ 1.29% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.17% Total : 25.1% | 0-1 @ 7.94% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 7.86% ( 0.02)0-2 @ 5.28% ( 0.02)1-3 @ 3.48% ( 0.02)2-3 @ 2.59% ( 0.02)0-3 @ 2.34% ( 0.02)1-4 @ 1.16% ( 0.01)Other @ 3.21% Total : 33.85% |
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