SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mainz 05 win with a probability of 41.25%. A win for Hoffenheim had a probability of 33.5% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mainz 05 win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.81%) and 2-0 (6.74%). The likeliest Hoffenheim win was 0-1 (8.06%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.91%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 6.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Mainz 05 would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Mainz 05 | Draw | Hoffenheim |
41.25% ( 0.52) | 25.24% ( 0.35) | 33.5% ( -0.87) |
| Both teams to score 56.35% ( -1.44) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 52.76% ( -1.77) | 47.24% ( 1.76) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 30.53% ( -1.67) | 69.47% ( 1.66) |
| Mainz 05 Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.22% ( -0.52) | 22.78% ( 0.51) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 43.52% ( -0.77) | 56.48% ( 0.77) |
| Hoffenheim Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.98% ( -1.37) | 27.02% ( 1.36) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 37.62% ( -1.82) | 62.38% ( 1.82) |
| Score Analysis |
| Mainz 05 | Draw | Hoffenheim |
| 1-0 @ 9.11% ( 0.52) 2-1 @ 8.81% ( 0.05)2-0 @ 6.74% ( 0.29)3-1 @ 4.35% ( -0.04)3-0 @ 3.32% ( 0.09)3-2 @ 2.84% ( -0.14)4-1 @ 1.61% ( -0.04)4-0 @ 1.23% ( 0.02)4-2 @ 1.05% ( -0.07)Other @ 2.2% Total : 41.25% | 1-1 @ 11.91% ( 0.24) 0-0 @ 6.16% ( 0.44)2-2 @ 5.77% ( -0.2)3-3 @ 1.24% ( -0.11)Other @ 0.16% Total : 25.24% | 0-1 @ 8.06% ( 0.28) 1-2 @ 7.8% ( -0.14)0-2 @ 5.27% ( -0.02)1-3 @ 3.4% ( -0.2)2-3 @ 2.52% ( -0.19)0-3 @ 2.3% ( -0.1)1-4 @ 1.11% ( -0.11)Other @ 3.06% Total : 33.5% |
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