SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a RB Leipzig win with a probability of 56%. A win for FC Koln had a probability of 22.36% and a draw had a probability of 21.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a RB Leipzig win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.35%) and 2-0 (8.29%). The likeliest FC Koln win was 1-2 (5.84%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.88%). The actual scoreline of 6-0 was predicted with a 0.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that RB Leipzig would win this match.
| Result | ||
| RB Leipzig | Draw | FC Koln |
56% ( 0.25) | 21.64% ( -0.06) | 22.36% ( -0.19) |
| Both teams to score 59.84% ( -0.07) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 61.35% ( 0.03) | 38.64% ( -0.02) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 39.05% ( 0.03) | 60.94% ( -0.03) |
| RB Leipzig Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 86.27% ( 0.09) | 13.72% ( -0.08) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 59.02% ( 0.17) | 40.98% ( -0.17) |
| FC Koln Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.36% ( -0.15) | 30.64% ( 0.15) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 33.11% ( -0.18) | 66.88% ( 0.18) |
| Score Analysis |
| RB Leipzig | Draw | FC Koln |
| 2-1 @ 9.81% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 8.35% ( 0.02)2-0 @ 8.29% ( 0.04)3-1 @ 6.49% ( 0.03)3-0 @ 5.49% ( 0.04)3-2 @ 3.84% 4-1 @ 3.22% ( 0.02)4-0 @ 2.73% ( 0.03)4-2 @ 1.91% ( 0.01)5-1 @ 1.28% ( 0.01)5-0 @ 1.08% ( 0.02)Other @ 3.5% Total : 56% | 1-1 @ 9.88% ( -0.02) 2-2 @ 5.8% ( -0.02)0-0 @ 4.21% ( -0)3-3 @ 1.51% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.24% Total : 21.64% | 1-2 @ 5.84% ( -0.04) 0-1 @ 4.97% ( -0.03)0-2 @ 2.94% ( -0.03)1-3 @ 2.3% ( -0.02)2-3 @ 2.29% ( -0.02)0-3 @ 1.16% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.85% Total : 22.36% |
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