Stoke will play with the enthusiasm which comes naturally under a new manager and will push Reading all the way on Sunday. However, we cannot ignore the Royals' perfect home record, leading us to predict a hard-fought triumph for Ince's side.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Stoke City win with a probability of 43.37%. A win for Reading had a probability of 28.65% and a draw had a probability of 28%.
The most likely scoreline for a Stoke City win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.47%) and 1-2 (8.46%). The likeliest Reading win was 1-0 (10.04%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.03%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 6.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Reading in this match.
0.1) 
-0.16) 
