SM
| Current Group B Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Mexico | 3 | 5 | 6 |
| 2 | Qatar | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 3 | Honduras | 3 | -3 | 4 |
| 4 | Haiti | 3 | -2 | 3 |
| Current Group A Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | USA | 3 | 12 | 7 |
| 2 | Jamaica | 3 | 8 | 7 |
| 3 | Trinidad and Tobago | 3 | -6 | 3 |
| 4 | Saint Kitts and Nevis | 3 | -14 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a USA win with a probability of 40.05%. A win for Mexico had a probability of 34.22% and a draw had a probability of 25.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a USA win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.64%) and 0-2 (6.7%). The likeliest Mexico win was 1-0 (8.61%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.2%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 6.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that USA would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Mexico | Draw | USA |
34.22% ( -0.21) | 25.72% ( 0.02) | 40.05% ( 0.19) |
| Both teams to score 54.89% ( -0.13) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 50.8% ( -0.15) | 49.2% ( 0.15) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 28.73% ( -0.13) | 71.26% ( 0.13) |
| Mexico Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.47% ( -0.2) | 27.53% ( 0.2) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 36.96% ( -0.26) | 63.04% ( 0.26) |
| USA Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.74% ( 0.03) | 24.25% ( -0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 41.39% ( 0.05) | 58.61% ( -0.05) |
| Score Analysis |
| Mexico | Draw | USA |
| 1-0 @ 8.61% ( 0) 2-1 @ 7.87% ( -0.04)2-0 @ 5.56% ( -0.03)3-1 @ 3.38% ( -0.03)3-2 @ 2.4% ( -0.02)3-0 @ 2.39% ( -0.03)4-1 @ 1.09% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.93% Total : 34.23% | 1-1 @ 12.2% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 6.68% ( 0.04)2-2 @ 5.57% ( -0.02)3-3 @ 1.13% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.14% Total : 25.72% | 0-1 @ 9.46% ( 0.07) 1-2 @ 8.64% ( 0.02)0-2 @ 6.7% ( 0.05)1-3 @ 4.08% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 3.16% ( 0.03)2-3 @ 2.63% ( -0.01)1-4 @ 1.45% ( 0.01)0-4 @ 1.12% ( 0.01)2-4 @ 0.93% ( -0)Other @ 1.88% Total : 40.05% |
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