SM
| Current Group B Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Mexico | 3 | 5 | 6 |
| 2 | Qatar | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 3 | Honduras | 3 | -3 | 4 |
| 4 | Haiti | 3 | -2 | 3 |
| Current Group E Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Japan | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 2 | Spain | 3 | 6 | 4 |
| 3 | Germany | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| 4 | Costa Rica | 3 | -8 | 3 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Germany win with a probability of 47.23%. A win for Mexico had a probability of 28.57% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Germany win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.18%) and 0-2 (7.6%). The likeliest Mexico win was 2-1 (7.02%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.34%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.8% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Mexico | Draw | Germany |
28.57% ( -0.36) | 24.21% ( 0.19) | 47.23% ( 0.17) |
| Both teams to score 57.42% ( -0.9) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 55.24% ( -1.07) | 44.76% ( 1.08) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 32.88% ( -1.04) | 67.12% ( 1.05) |
| Mexico Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.95% ( -0.8) | 29.05% ( 0.8) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 35.04% ( -1) | 64.96% ( 1.01) |
| Germany Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.93% ( -0.35) | 19.08% ( 0.35) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 49.32% ( -0.59) | 50.68% ( 0.59) |
| Score Analysis |
| Mexico | Draw | Germany |
| 2-1 @ 7.02% ( -0.07) 1-0 @ 6.85% ( 0.16)2-0 @ 4.23% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 2.89% ( -0.09)3-2 @ 2.4% ( -0.11)3-0 @ 1.75% ( -0.04)Other @ 3.44% Total : 28.57% | 1-1 @ 11.34% ( 0.14) 2-2 @ 5.81% ( -0.12)0-0 @ 5.54% ( 0.25)3-3 @ 1.32% ( -0.07)Other @ 0.18% Total : 24.2% | 1-2 @ 9.4% ( 0.02) 0-1 @ 9.18% ( 0.32)0-2 @ 7.6% ( 0.18)1-3 @ 5.19% ( -0.05)0-3 @ 4.2% ( 0.06)2-3 @ 3.21% ( -0.1)1-4 @ 2.15% ( -0.04)0-4 @ 1.74% ( 0)2-4 @ 1.33% ( -0.06)Other @ 3.22% Total : 47.23% |
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