Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Mineiro win with a probability of 48.7%. A draw had a probability of 25.8% and a win for Deportes Tolima had a probability of 25.5%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Mineiro win was 0-1 with a probability of 12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.28%) and 0-2 (9.09%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.24%), while for a Deportes Tolima win it was 1-0 (8.08%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 9.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Atletico Mineiro would win this match.
