Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Flamengo win with a probability of 61.8%. A draw had a probability of 21.6% and a win for Sao Paulo had a probability of 16.62%.
The most likely scoreline for a Flamengo win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.19%) and 2-1 (9.87%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.26%), while for a Sao Paulo win it was 0-1 (5.34%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Flamengo would win this match.
