Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Groningen win with a probability of 45.58%. A win for Jong Ajax had a probability of 31.55% and a draw had a probability of 22.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Groningen win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.92%) and 0-2 (6.2%). The likeliest Jong Ajax win was 2-1 (7.39%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.11%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 6.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Groningen would win this match.
-0.02) 
0.01) 
