SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Plymouth Argyle win with a probability of 57.31%. A draw had a probability of 22.7% and a win for MK Dons had a probability of 20.01%.
The most likely scoreline for a Plymouth Argyle win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.01%) and 2-1 (9.89%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.76%), while for a MK Dons win it was 0-1 (5.86%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Plymouth Argyle would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Plymouth Argyle | Draw | MK Dons |
57.31% ( 0.64) | 22.68% ( -0.21) | 20.01% ( -0.43) |
| Both teams to score 52.75% ( 0.01) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 53.64% ( 0.34) | 46.36% ( -0.34) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 31.35% ( 0.32) | 68.65% ( -0.32) |
| Plymouth Argyle Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.07% ( 0.33) | 15.93% ( -0.34) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 54.82% ( 0.61) | 45.18% ( -0.61) |
| MK Dons Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 62.74% ( -0.25) | 37.26% ( 0.24) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 25.95% ( -0.24) | 74.05% ( 0.24) |
| Score Analysis |
| Plymouth Argyle | Draw | MK Dons |
| 1-0 @ 10.9% ( -0.03) 2-0 @ 10.01% ( 0.08)2-1 @ 9.89% ( 0.02)3-0 @ 6.13% ( 0.12)3-1 @ 6.06% ( 0.08)3-2 @ 2.99% ( 0.02)4-0 @ 2.82% ( 0.09)4-1 @ 2.78% ( 0.07)4-2 @ 1.37% ( 0.02)5-0 @ 1.04% ( 0.04)5-1 @ 1.02% ( 0.04)Other @ 2.3% Total : 57.3% | 1-1 @ 10.76% ( -0.1) 0-0 @ 5.93% ( -0.09)2-2 @ 4.88% ( -0.02)3-3 @ 0.98% Other @ 0.12% Total : 22.68% | 0-1 @ 5.86% ( -0.12) 1-2 @ 5.31% ( -0.09)0-2 @ 2.89% ( -0.08)1-3 @ 1.75% ( -0.04)2-3 @ 1.61% ( -0.02)0-3 @ 0.95% ( -0.03)Other @ 1.64% Total : 20.01% |
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