SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 43.68%. A win for Vitesse had a probability of 30.6% and a draw had a probability of 25.7%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9%) and 0-2 (7.57%). The likeliest Vitesse win was 1-0 (8.31%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.22%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 7.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AZ Alkmaar would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Vitesse | Draw | AZ Alkmaar |
30.6% ( 0.73) | 25.73% ( 0.03) | 43.68% ( -0.76) |
| Both teams to score 53.6% ( 0.28) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 49.69% ( 0.19) | 50.31% ( -0.19) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 27.74% ( 0.17) | 72.26% ( -0.17) |
| Vitesse Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.56% ( 0.61) | 30.45% ( -0.61) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 33.35% ( 0.72) | 66.65% ( -0.72) |
| AZ Alkmaar Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.06% ( -0.28) | 22.94% ( 0.28) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 43.28% ( -0.41) | 56.72% ( 0.41) |
| Score Analysis |
| Vitesse | Draw | AZ Alkmaar |
| 1-0 @ 8.31% ( 0.08) 2-1 @ 7.27% ( 0.13)2-0 @ 4.94% ( 0.13)3-1 @ 2.88% ( 0.1)3-2 @ 2.12% ( 0.05)3-0 @ 1.96% ( 0.08)Other @ 3.12% Total : 30.6% | 1-1 @ 12.22% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 6.99% ( -0.05)2-2 @ 5.35% ( 0.05)3-3 @ 1.04% ( 0.02)Other @ 0.12% Total : 25.72% | 0-1 @ 10.28% ( -0.16) 1-2 @ 9% ( -0.07)0-2 @ 7.57% ( -0.19)1-3 @ 4.42% ( -0.07)0-3 @ 3.71% ( -0.12)2-3 @ 2.63% ( 0)1-4 @ 1.63% ( -0.04)0-4 @ 1.37% ( -0.06)2-4 @ 0.97% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.1% Total : 43.67% |
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