SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 39.08%. A win for PEC Zwolle had a probability of 35.45% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 0-1 with a probability of 9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.55%) and 0-2 (6.38%). The likeliest PEC Zwolle win was 1-0 (8.49%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.04%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AZ Alkmaar would win this match.
| Result | ||
| PEC Zwolle | Draw | AZ Alkmaar |
35.45% ( -0.23) | 25.48% ( -0.04) | 39.08% ( 0.27) |
| Both teams to score 55.94% ( 0.1) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 52.05% ( 0.15) | 47.95% ( -0.15) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 29.88% ( 0.14) | 70.12% ( -0.14) |
| PEC Zwolle Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.8% ( -0.06) | 26.2% ( 0.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 38.71% ( -0.08) | 61.3% ( 0.08) |
| AZ Alkmaar Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.8% ( 0.2) | 24.2% ( -0.21) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 41.47% ( 0.29) | 58.54% ( -0.29) |
| Score Analysis |
| PEC Zwolle | Draw | AZ Alkmaar |
| 1-0 @ 8.49% ( -0.07) 2-1 @ 8.07% ( -0.03)2-0 @ 5.69% ( -0.06)3-1 @ 3.6% ( -0.02)3-2 @ 2.56% ( 0)3-0 @ 2.54% ( -0.03)4-1 @ 1.21% ( -0.01)Other @ 3.29% Total : 35.45% | 1-1 @ 12.04% ( -0.03) 0-0 @ 6.34% ( -0.04)2-2 @ 5.72% ( 0.01)3-3 @ 1.21% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.16% Total : 25.47% | 0-1 @ 9% ( -0) 1-2 @ 8.55% ( 0.04)0-2 @ 6.38% ( 0.04)1-3 @ 4.04% ( 0.04)0-3 @ 3.02% ( 0.03)2-3 @ 2.71% ( 0.02)1-4 @ 1.43% ( 0.02)0-4 @ 1.07% ( 0.02)2-4 @ 0.96% ( 0.01)Other @ 1.92% Total : 39.08% |
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