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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 59.56%. A win for PSV Eindhoven had a probability of 23.2% and a draw had a probability of 17.2%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 2-1 with a probability of 7.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (6.65%) and 3-2 (5.97%). The likeliest PSV Eindhoven win was 1-2 (4.46%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 2-2 (6.32%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 4.5% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Ajax | Draw | PSV Eindhoven |
59.56% ( -0.28) | 17.23% ( 0.06) | 23.2% ( 0.22) |
| Both teams to score 78.45% ( 0.05) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 84.01% ( -0.03) | 15.98% ( 0.03) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 67.85% ( -0.05) | 32.14% ( 0.05) |
| Ajax Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 94.11% ( -0.05) | 5.88% ( 0.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 77.45% ( -0.16) | 22.55% ( 0.16) |
| PSV Eindhoven Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.35% ( 0.11) | 16.64% ( -0.11) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 53.51% ( 0.19) | 46.48% ( -0.19) |
| Score Analysis |
| Ajax | Draw | PSV Eindhoven |
| 2-1 @ 7.05% ( -0) 3-1 @ 6.65% ( -0.02)3-2 @ 5.97% ( 0)4-1 @ 4.71% ( -0.03)4-2 @ 4.23% ( -0.01)2-0 @ 3.93% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 3.71% ( -0.03)1-0 @ 2.77% ( -0)5-1 @ 2.67% ( -0.03)4-0 @ 2.63% ( -0.03)4-3 @ 2.53% ( 0)5-2 @ 2.4% ( -0.02)5-0 @ 1.49% ( -0.02)5-3 @ 1.43% ( -0)6-1 @ 1.26% ( -0.02)6-2 @ 1.13% ( -0.01)Other @ 5.01% Total : 59.56% | 2-2 @ 6.32% ( 0.02) 1-1 @ 4.97% ( 0.02)3-3 @ 3.57% ( 0.01)4-4 @ 1.13% ( 0)0-0 @ 0.98% ( 0)Other @ 0.27% Total : 17.23% | 1-2 @ 4.46% ( 0.03) 2-3 @ 3.78% ( 0.03)1-3 @ 2.67% ( 0.03)0-1 @ 1.76% ( 0.01)2-4 @ 1.69% ( 0.02)3-4 @ 1.6% ( 0.01)0-2 @ 1.57% ( 0.02)1-4 @ 1.2% ( 0.02)0-3 @ 0.94% ( 0.01)Other @ 3.55% Total : 23.2% |
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