Both Vitesse and AZ will head into Thursday's fixture in high spirits after coming from behind to progress on aggregate in the semi-finals. The two teams played out a goalless draw at the Gelredome earlier this season and another draw could be on the cards on this occasion, considering there is little to separate them. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 38.02%. A win for Vitesse had a probability of 37.86% and a draw had a probability of 24.1%.

The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.28%) and 0-2 (5.54%). The likeliest Vitesse win was 2-1 (8.39%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.05%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.4% likelihood.

Result
Vitesse	Draw	AZ Alkmaar
37.86%	24.12%	38.02%

Both teams to score 61.04%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

58.57%

41.43%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

36.17%

63.83%

Vitesse Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

78.09%

21.91%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

44.82%

55.18%

AZ Alkmaar Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

78.17%

21.83%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

44.95%

55.05%

Score Analysis

Vitesse 37.86%

AZ Alkmaar 38.02%

Draw 24.12%

Vitesse	Draw	AZ Alkmaar
2-1 @ 8.39% 1-0 @ 7.26% 2-0 @ 5.51% 3-1 @ 4.25% 3-2 @ 3.23% 3-0 @ 2.79% 4-1 @ 1.61% 4-2 @ 1.23% 4-0 @ 1.06% Other @ 2.53% Total : 37.86%	1-1 @ 11.05% 2-2 @ 6.38% 0-0 @ 4.78% 3-3 @ 1.64% Other @ 0.26% Total : 24.12%	1-2 @ 8.41% 0-1 @ 7.28% 0-2 @ 5.54% 1-3 @ 4.27% 2-3 @ 3.24% 0-3 @ 2.81% 1-4 @ 1.62% 2-4 @ 1.23% 0-4 @ 1.07% Other @ 2.55% Total : 38.02%