A closely-fought contest between two evenly-matched sides is set to take place on Thursday, with Braga arguably the slight favourites given their impressive home record – losing only one of their 17 home matches across all competitions this season. Having said that, we expect the visitors to claim at least a draw, with the tie to be nicely poised for next week's second leg in France. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Braga win with a probability of 39.55%. A win for Monaco had a probability of 34.83% and a draw had a probability of 25.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Braga win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.24%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.59%) and 2-0 (6.54%). The likeliest Monaco win was 0-1 (8.57%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.13%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 6.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Braga would win this match.

Result
Braga	Draw	Monaco
39.55%	25.61%	34.83%

Both teams to score 55.38%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

51.37%

48.62%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

29.25%

70.74%

Braga Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

75.74%

24.25%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

41.38%

58.61%

Monaco Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

73.11%

26.88%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

37.8%

62.2%

Score Analysis

Braga 39.55%

Monaco 34.83%

Draw 25.61%

Braga	Draw	Monaco
1-0 @ 9.24% 2-1 @ 8.59% 2-0 @ 6.54% 3-1 @ 4.06% 3-0 @ 3.09% 3-2 @ 2.67% 4-1 @ 1.44% 4-0 @ 1.09% 4-2 @ 0.94% Other @ 1.89% Total : 39.55%	1-1 @ 12.13% 0-0 @ 6.52% 2-2 @ 5.65% 3-3 @ 1.17% Other @ 0.15% Total : 25.61%	0-1 @ 8.57% 1-2 @ 7.97% 0-2 @ 5.63% 1-3 @ 3.49% 2-3 @ 2.47% 0-3 @ 2.46% 1-4 @ 1.15% Other @ 3.1% Total : 34.83%