SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Braga win with a probability of 57.55%. A draw had a probability of 24.4% and a win for Malmo had a probability of 18.06%.
The most likely scoreline for a Braga win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.72%) and 2-1 (9.4%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.39%), while for a Malmo win it was 0-1 (6.91%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Braga would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Braga | Draw | Malmo |
57.55% ( 0.07) | 24.38% ( -0.05) | 18.06% ( -0.01) |
| Both teams to score 44.56% ( 0.12) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 44.38% ( 0.18) | 55.62% ( -0.18) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 23.22% ( 0.15) | 76.78% ( -0.15) |
| Braga Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.79% ( 0.09) | 19.21% ( -0.09) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 49.1% ( 0.15) | 50.9% ( -0.16) |
| Malmo Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 55.16% ( 0.09) | 44.84% ( -0.09) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 19.19% ( 0.07) | 80.8% ( -0.07) |
| Score Analysis |
| Braga | Draw | Malmo |
| 1-0 @ 14.2% ( -0.06) 2-0 @ 11.72% ( -0.01)2-1 @ 9.4% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 6.45% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 5.17% ( 0.02)4-0 @ 2.66% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 2.13% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 2.07% ( 0.01)Other @ 3.73% Total : 57.54% | 1-1 @ 11.39% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 8.61% ( -0.06)2-2 @ 3.77% ( 0.02)Other @ 0.6% Total : 24.38% | 0-1 @ 6.91% ( -0.03) 1-2 @ 4.57% ( 0)0-2 @ 2.77% ( -0)1-3 @ 1.22% ( 0)2-3 @ 1.01% ( 0.01)Other @ 1.58% Total : 18.07% |
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