Although Portsmouth are unbeaten at home this season, their last five home games have finished all square after 90 minutes, and we think that they will play out another draw on Saturday, which would send the second-round tie to a replay.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Portsmouth win with a probability of 54.06%. A draw had a probability of 24.4% and a win for MK Dons had a probability of 21.55%.
The most likely scoreline for a Portsmouth win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.12%) and 2-1 (9.63%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.58%), while for a MK Dons win it was 0-1 (6.97%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Portsmouth would win this match.
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