Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Roma win with a probability of 48.11%. A win for Yokohama F Marinos had a probability of 27.65% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Roma win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.47%) and 2-0 (7.88%). The likeliest Yokohama F Marinos win was 0-1 (6.86%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.39%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 0.8% likelihood.
0.05) 
-0.01) 
