Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AEK Athens win with a probability of 70.07%. A draw had a probability of 18.6% and a win for Asteras Tripolis had a probability of 11.3%.
The most likely scoreline for an AEK Athens win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (12.25%) and 2-1 (9.45%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.84%), while for an Asteras Tripolis win it was 0-1 (4.14%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that AEK Athens would win this match.