Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Panathinaikos win with a probability of 43.87%. A draw had a probability of 30.2% and a win for Asteras Tripolis had a probability of 25.94%.
The most likely scoreline for a Panathinaikos win was 0-1 with a probability of 15.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.29%) and 1-2 (7.71%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (13.48%), while for an Asteras Tripolis win it was 1-0 (11.18%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 0.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Panathinaikos would win this match.
0.09) 
-0.14) 
