Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Kyoto Sanga win with a probability of 38.34%. A win for Sagan Tosu had a probability of 31.84% and a draw had a probability of 29.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Kyoto Sanga win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.59%) and 2-1 (7.51%). The likeliest Sagan Tosu win was 0-1 (12.04%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.44%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 2.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Kyoto Sanga would win this match.
