SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derry City win with a probability of 52.46%. A draw had a probability of 24.8% and a win for St Patrick's Athletic had a probability of 22.79%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derry City win was 1-0 with a probability of 12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.75%) and 2-1 (9.56%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.76%), while for a St Patrick's Athletic win it was 0-1 (7.24%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Derry City would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Derry City | Draw | St Patrick's Athletic |
52.46% ( -0.08) | 24.76% ( -0.02) | 22.79% ( 0.1) |
| Both teams to score 50.19% ( 0.18) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 48.31% ( 0.18) | 51.69% ( -0.17) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 26.53% ( 0.15) | 73.47% ( -0.15) |
| Derry City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.32% ( 0.04) | 19.68% ( -0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 48.33% ( 0.06) | 51.67% ( -0.06) |
| St Patrick's Athletic Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 62.49% ( 0.19) | 37.51% ( -0.19) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 25.71% ( 0.19) | 74.29% ( -0.19) |
| Score Analysis |
| Derry City | Draw | St Patrick's Athletic |
| 1-0 @ 12% ( -0.07) 2-0 @ 9.75% ( -0.05)2-1 @ 9.56% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 5.29% ( -0.02)3-1 @ 5.18% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 2.54% ( 0.02)4-0 @ 2.15% ( -0)4-1 @ 2.11% ( 0.01)4-2 @ 1.03% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.84% Total : 52.46% | 1-1 @ 11.76% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 7.38% ( -0.05)2-2 @ 4.69% ( 0.03)Other @ 0.92% Total : 24.75% | 0-1 @ 7.24% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 5.77% ( 0.03)0-2 @ 3.55% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 1.89% ( 0.02)2-3 @ 1.53% ( 0.02)0-3 @ 1.16% ( 0.01)Other @ 1.66% Total : 22.79% |
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