Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a St Patrick's Athletic win with a probability of 38.07%. A win for Derry City had a probability of 32.83% and a draw had a probability of 29.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a St Patrick's Athletic win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.7%) and 2-0 (7.35%). The likeliest Derry City win was 0-1 (11.62%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.37%). The actual scoreline of 0-4 was predicted with a 0.6% likelihood.
