Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Carlisle United win with a probability of 46.3%. A win for Harrogate Town had a probability of 27.68% and a draw had a probability of 26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Carlisle United win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.13%) and 2-0 (8.46%). The likeliest Harrogate Town win was 0-1 (8.37%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.36%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Carlisle United would win this match.
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