Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Oxford United win with a probability of 48.8%. A win for MK Dons had a probability of 26.27% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Oxford United win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.45%) and 2-0 (8.58%). The likeliest MK Dons win was 0-1 (7.43%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.84%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.5% likelihood.
-0.62) 
0.65) 
