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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Connah's Quay Nomads win with a probability of 61.81%. A draw had a probability of 20.3% and a win for Aberystwyth Town had a probability of 17.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Connah's Quay Nomads win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.47%) and 0-1 (8.97%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.39%), while for an Aberystwyth Town win it was 2-1 (4.91%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Aberystwyth Town | Draw | Connah's Quay Nomads |
17.9% ( -0.04) | 20.29% ( -0.03) | 61.81% ( 0.07) |
| Both teams to score 57.05% ( 0.05) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 61.16% ( 0.1) | 38.83% ( -0.11) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 38.85% ( 0.11) | 61.14% ( -0.11) |
| Aberystwyth Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 64.89% ( 0.02) | 35.1% ( -0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 28.14% ( 0.02) | 71.85% ( -0.03) |
| Connah's Quay Nomads Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 87.91% ( 0.05) | 12.09% ( -0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 62.37% ( 0.11) | 37.62% ( -0.11) |
| Score Analysis |
| Aberystwyth Town | Draw | Connah's Quay Nomads |
| 2-1 @ 4.91% ( -0.01) 1-0 @ 4.44% ( -0.02)2-0 @ 2.33% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 1.81% ( 0)3-1 @ 1.71% ( -0)Other @ 2.7% Total : 17.9% | 1-1 @ 9.39% ( -0.02) 2-2 @ 5.19% ( 0)0-0 @ 4.24% ( -0.02)3-3 @ 1.28% ( 0)Other @ 0.19% Total : 20.29% | 1-2 @ 9.92% ( -0) 0-2 @ 9.47% ( -0.01)0-1 @ 8.97% ( -0.03)1-3 @ 6.99% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 6.67% ( 0.01)1-4 @ 3.69% ( 0.01)2-3 @ 3.66% ( 0.01)0-4 @ 3.53% ( 0.01)2-4 @ 1.93% ( 0.01)1-5 @ 1.56% ( 0.01)0-5 @ 1.49% ( 0.01)Other @ 3.94% Total : 61.81% |
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