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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Connah's Quay Nomads win with a probability of 56.37%. A draw had a probability of 23.7% and a win for Aberystwyth Town had a probability of 19.91%.
The most likely scoreline for a Connah's Quay Nomads win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.56%) and 2-1 (9.72%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.26%), while for an Aberystwyth Town win it was 0-1 (6.53%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 2.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Connah's Quay Nomads would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Connah's Quay Nomads | Draw | Aberystwyth Town |
56.37% ( -0.47) | 23.71% ( 0.2) | 19.91% ( 0.27) |
| Both teams to score 49.42% ( -0.19) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 49.27% ( -0.47) | 50.72% ( 0.47) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 27.37% ( -0.42) | 72.62% ( 0.42) |
| Connah's Quay Nomads Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.18% ( -0.34) | 17.81% ( 0.34) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 51.45% ( -0.6) | 48.55% ( 0.59) |
| Aberystwyth Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 60.13% ( 0.02) | 39.87% ( -0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 23.47% ( 0.02) | 76.53% ( -0.02) |
| Score Analysis |
| Connah's Quay Nomads | Draw | Aberystwyth Town |
| 1-0 @ 12.25% ( 0.1) 2-0 @ 10.56% ( -0.04)2-1 @ 9.72% ( -0.03)3-0 @ 6.08% ( -0.09)3-1 @ 5.59% ( -0.08)4-0 @ 2.62% ( -0.07)3-2 @ 2.57% ( -0.04)4-1 @ 2.41% ( -0.06)4-2 @ 1.11% ( -0.03)5-0 @ 0.91% ( -0.03)Other @ 2.55% Total : 56.36% | 1-1 @ 11.26% ( 0.09) 0-0 @ 7.1% ( 0.13)2-2 @ 4.47% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.87% Total : 23.7% | 0-1 @ 6.53% ( 0.13) 1-2 @ 5.18% ( 0.04)0-2 @ 3% ( 0.06)1-3 @ 1.59% ( 0.01)2-3 @ 1.37% ( -0)0-3 @ 0.92% ( 0.02)Other @ 1.32% Total : 19.91% |
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