SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Pen-y-Bont win with a probability of 69.51%. A draw had a probability of 18.9% and a win for Aberystwyth Town had a probability of 11.54%.
The most likely scoreline for a Pen-y-Bont win was 0-2 with a probability of 13.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (12.47%) and 1-2 (9.46%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.98%), while for an Aberystwyth Town win it was 1-0 (4.27%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Pen-y-Bont would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Aberystwyth Town | Draw | Pen-y-Bont |
11.54% ( 0.02) | 18.95% ( 0.07) | 69.51% ( -0.09) |
| Both teams to score 45.08% ( -0.15) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 53.67% ( -0.24) | 46.32% ( 0.24) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 31.39% ( -0.23) | 68.61% ( 0.23) |
| Aberystwyth Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 51.33% ( -0.11) | 48.67% ( 0.11) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 16.28% ( -0.08) | 83.72% ( 0.08) |
| Pen-y-Bont Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 87.83% ( -0.1) | 12.17% ( 0.1) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 62.19% ( -0.21) | 37.81% ( 0.2) |
| Score Analysis |
| Aberystwyth Town | Draw | Pen-y-Bont |
| 1-0 @ 4.27% ( 0.03) 2-1 @ 3.24% ( 0)2-0 @ 1.54% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.5% Total : 11.54% | 1-1 @ 8.98% ( 0.03) 0-0 @ 5.92% ( 0.06)2-2 @ 3.41% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.63% Total : 18.95% | 0-2 @ 13.13% ( 0.03) 0-1 @ 12.47% ( 0.08)1-2 @ 9.46% ( -0)0-3 @ 9.22% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 6.64% ( -0.03)0-4 @ 4.86% ( -0.02)1-4 @ 3.5% ( -0.03)2-3 @ 2.39% ( -0.02)0-5 @ 2.05% ( -0.02)1-5 @ 1.47% ( -0.02)2-4 @ 1.26% ( -0.01)Other @ 3.05% Total : 69.5% |
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