SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 76.59%. A draw had a probability of 14.9% and a win for Willem II had a probability of 8.52%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (10.41%) and 1-0 (9.73%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.06%), while for a Willem II win it was 0-1 (2.79%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Ajax would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Ajax | Draw | Willem II |
76.59% ( 0.02) | 14.9% | 8.52% ( -0.02) |
| Both teams to score 47.52% ( -0.07) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 63.24% ( -0.05) | 36.76% ( 0.06) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 41.07% ( -0.06) | 58.93% ( 0.06) |
| Ajax Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 92.07% ( -0.01) | 7.94% ( 0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 71.96% ( -0.02) | 28.04% ( 0.02) |
| Willem II Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 51.61% ( -0.07) | 48.39% ( 0.07) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 16.49% ( -0.05) | 83.51% ( 0.05) |
| Score Analysis |
| Ajax | Draw | Willem II |
| 2-0 @ 12.32% ( 0.02) 3-0 @ 10.41% ( 0.02)1-0 @ 9.73% ( 0.02)2-1 @ 8.95% ( -0)3-1 @ 7.56% ( -0)4-0 @ 6.59% ( 0)4-1 @ 4.79% ( -0.01)5-0 @ 3.34% ( 0)3-2 @ 2.74% ( -0.01)5-1 @ 2.43% ( -0)4-2 @ 1.74% ( -0.01)6-0 @ 1.41% ( -0)6-1 @ 1.02% ( -0)Other @ 3.55% Total : 76.58% | 1-1 @ 7.06% ( 0) 0-0 @ 3.84% ( 0.01)2-2 @ 3.25% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.75% Total : 14.9% | 0-1 @ 2.79% ( 0) 1-2 @ 2.56% ( -0)0-2 @ 1.01% ( -0)Other @ 2.15% Total : 8.52% |
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