Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arbroath win with a probability of 50.51%. A win for Greenock Morton had a probability of 25.48% and a draw had a probability of 24%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arbroath win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.63%) and 2-0 (8.47%). The likeliest Greenock Morton win was 0-1 (6.67%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.33%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.4% likelihood.
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