SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Aston Villa win with a probability of 43.94%. A win for Crystal Palace had a probability of 30.28% and a draw had a probability of 25.8%.
The most likely scoreline for an Aston Villa win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.42%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.02%) and 2-0 (7.67%). The likeliest Crystal Palace win was 0-1 (8.34%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.25%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Aston Villa would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Aston Villa | Draw | Crystal Palace |
43.94% ( 0.08) | 25.79% ( -0.01) | 30.28% ( -0.07) |
| Both teams to score 53.26% ( 0.01) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 49.33% ( 0.03) | 50.68% ( -0.02) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 27.42% ( 0.02) | 72.58% ( -0.02) |
| Aston Villa Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.03% ( 0.05) | 22.97% ( -0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 43.24% ( 0.07) | 56.76% ( -0.07) |
| Crystal Palace Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.15% ( -0.03) | 30.85% ( 0.04) |
