SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Aston Villa win with a probability of 58.03%. A win for Southampton had a probability of 21.26% and a draw had a probability of 20.7%.
The most likely scoreline for an Aston Villa win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.07%) and 1-0 (7.66%). The likeliest Southampton win was 1-2 (5.58%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.24%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 7.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Aston Villa would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Aston Villa | Draw | Southampton |
58.03% ( 2.87) | 20.72% ( -0.88) | 21.26% ( -1.99) |
| Both teams to score 61.58% ( 0.33) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 64.36% ( 1.69) | 35.64% ( -1.68) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 42.3% ( 1.84) | 57.7% ( -1.83) |
| Aston Villa Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 87.85% ( 1.39) | 12.15% ( -1.39) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 62.24% ( 2.85) | 37.76% ( -2.85) |
| Southampton Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.1% ( -0.75) | 29.9% ( 0.75) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 34% ( -0.91) | 66% ( 0.92) |
| Score Analysis |
| Aston Villa | Draw | Southampton |
| 2-1 @ 9.74% ( 0.02) 2-0 @ 8.07% ( 0.18)1-0 @ 7.66% ( -0.23)3-1 @ 6.85% ( 0.36)3-0 @ 5.67% ( 0.41)3-2 @ 4.13% ( 0.14)4-1 @ 3.61% ( 0.37)4-0 @ 2.99% ( 0.36)4-2 @ 2.18% ( 0.18)5-1 @ 1.52% ( 0.23)5-0 @ 1.26% ( 0.21)5-2 @ 0.92% ( 0.12)Other @ 3.43% Total : 58.03% | 1-1 @ 9.24% ( -0.48) 2-2 @ 5.88% ( -0.11)0-0 @ 3.63% ( -0.31)3-3 @ 1.66% ( 0.02)Other @ 0.29% Total : 20.72% | 1-2 @ 5.58% ( -0.42) 0-1 @ 4.39% ( -0.48)0-2 @ 2.65% ( -0.35)2-3 @ 2.37% ( -0.1)1-3 @ 2.25% ( -0.22)0-3 @ 1.07% ( -0.17)Other @ 2.97% Total : 21.26% |
ISOCountry Code:
Matched Country Groups:
