Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Mineiro win with a probability of 72.92%. A draw had a probability of 17% and a win for Vasco da Gama had a probability of 10.06%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Mineiro win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.19%) and 3-0 (9.86%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.09%), while for a Vasco da Gama win it was 0-1 (3.52%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood.
0.08) 
-0.02) 
