Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Athletico Paranaense win with a probability of 57.39%. A draw had a probability of 22.7% and a win for America Mineiro had a probability of 19.93%.
The most likely scoreline for an Athletico Paranaense win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.04%) and 2-1 (9.89%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.76%), while for an America Mineiro win it was 0-1 (5.86%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Athletico Paranaense would win this match.
-0.02) 
0.01) 
