SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayer Leverkusen win with a probability of 69.9%. A draw had a probability of 17.3% and a win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 12.83%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bayer Leverkusen win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.58%) and 1-0 (8.53%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.97%), while for a Mainz 05 win it was 1-2 (3.72%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bayer Leverkusen would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Bayer Leverkusen | Draw | Mainz 05 |
69.9% ( 0.05) | 17.27% ( -0.01) | 12.83% ( -0.04) |
| Both teams to score 55.23% ( -0.07) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 64.85% ( -0.04) | 35.15% ( 0.04) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 42.84% ( -0.04) | 57.16% ( 0.05) |
| Bayer Leverkusen Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 90.98% ( 0) | 9.02% ( -0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 69.28% | 30.72% ( -0) |
| Mainz 05 Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 60.7% ( -0.08) | 39.29% ( 0.08) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 24% ( -0.07) | 76% ( 0.08) |
| Score Analysis |
| Bayer Leverkusen | Draw | Mainz 05 |
| 2-0 @ 10.25% ( 0.02) 2-1 @ 9.58% ( -0)1-0 @ 8.53% ( 0.02)3-0 @ 8.23% ( 0.02)3-1 @ 7.68% ( -0)4-0 @ 4.95% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 4.62% 3-2 @ 3.59% ( -0.01)5-0 @ 2.38% ( 0)5-1 @ 2.22% ( -0)4-2 @ 2.16% ( -0)5-2 @ 1.04% ( -0)6-0 @ 0.95% ( 0)Other @ 3.72% Total : 69.89% | 1-1 @ 7.97% ( -0) 2-2 @ 4.47% ( -0.01)0-0 @ 3.54% ( 0.01)3-3 @ 1.12% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.17% Total : 17.27% | 1-2 @ 3.72% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 3.31% 0-2 @ 1.55% ( -0)2-3 @ 1.39% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 1.16% ( -0.01)Other @ 1.7% Total : 12.83% |
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