SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Stuttgart win with a probability of 56.4%. A draw had a probability of 22.1% and a win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 21.45%.
The most likely scoreline for a Stuttgart win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.43%) and 2-0 (9.02%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.34%), while for a Mainz 05 win it was 1-2 (5.67%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Stuttgart would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Stuttgart | Draw | Mainz 05 |
56.4% ( -0.41) | 22.14% ( 0.12) | 21.45% ( 0.29) |
| Both teams to score 56.78% ( 0.02) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 57.91% ( -0.18) | 42.08% ( 0.19) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 35.51% ( -0.18) | 64.49% ( 0.19) |
| Stuttgart Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.24% ( -0.19) | 14.76% ( 0.2) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 57% ( -0.37) | 42.99% ( 0.38) |
| Mainz 05 Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.61% ( 0.17) | 33.39% ( -0.17) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 29.98% ( 0.18) | 70.01% ( -0.18) |
| Score Analysis |
| Stuttgart | Draw | Mainz 05 |
| 2-1 @ 9.89% ( -0.01) 1-0 @ 9.43% ( 0.01)2-0 @ 9.02% ( -0.05)3-1 @ 6.31% ( -0.05)3-0 @ 5.75% ( -0.07)3-2 @ 3.46% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 3.02% ( -0.04)4-0 @ 2.75% ( -0.05)4-2 @ 1.66% ( -0.02)5-1 @ 1.16% ( -0.03)5-0 @ 1.05% ( -0.03)Other @ 2.9% Total : 56.4% | 1-1 @ 10.34% ( 0.06) 2-2 @ 5.43% ( 0.02)0-0 @ 4.93% ( 0.04)3-3 @ 1.27% ( 0)Other @ 0.18% Total : 22.14% | 1-2 @ 5.67% ( 0.06) 0-1 @ 5.41% ( 0.07)0-2 @ 2.96% ( 0.05)1-3 @ 2.07% ( 0.03)2-3 @ 1.98% ( 0.02)0-3 @ 1.08% ( 0.02)Other @ 2.27% Total : 21.45% |
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